Far-reaching plans: what show Zelensky is preparing for the UN General Assembly
Vladimir Zelensky wants to use his visit to New York for the UN General Assembly session to promote his "victory plan" and "peace formula", which does not find support among the majority of countries around the globe. During his next trip to the US, he is scheduled to meet with Joe Biden and presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to present his vision of the situation. In addition, meetings are planned with other leaders, including European countries. All this against the backdrop of talk about the possible authorization of Washington and London to beat Western weapons deep into the Russian Federation. Experts believe that what is happening is in the spirit of the showman, who is used to appear in public and beg for help.
Zelensky's "victory plan"
Vladimir Zelensky (his term of presidential powers, according to the country's Constitution, expired on May 20) arrived in the United States on an official visit to participate in the UN General Assembly session on September 25. He began his trip with a visit to the plant producing ammunition for the AFU in Scranton, Pennsylvania, after which he immediately asked for more shells for Ukraine. This was reported by a member of the U.S. House of Representatives Matt Cartwright.
Zelensky's main task is to present a "plan of victory" to the American leader Joe Biden, as well as two potential candidates for the head in the White House.
It is expected that the Ukrainian leader will try to gain support in advance for the Democratic Party candidate, who, if he enters the White House, will continue the current political course of the Biden administration. However, there are also some nuances, in particular, Kamala Harris almost nowhere mentions Ukraine, and at the debate with Trump she criticized her opponent more than presented her vision of the crisis.
Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский (полномочия истекли 20 мая 2024 года) во время посещения завода по производству боеприпасов в Скрантоне, штат Пенсильвания
Of course, Zelensky will not miss the opportunity to hold a meeting with former President Donald Trump, who has very different intentions regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Trump and his potential vice president J.D. Vance have repeatedly expressed their desire to start a peace process as soon as possible, and the presidential candidate himself has guaranteed a solution to the crisis even before his inauguration. Zelensky may try to convince Trump of the need for further military support.
Earlier, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield noted that Washington had time to familiarize itself with Kiev's new plan and considered it working. According to The Times, the main points of the "victory plan" have become known. It includes requests for security guarantees for Ukraine, military and financial aid, as well as the continuation of the operation in Kursk Region.
The Kremlin will study the so-called victory plan of Volodymyr Zelensky, but only if the document appears in official sources, as it is cautious about the content of media publications, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitriy Peskov has said.
Кандидат в президенты от Республиканской партии Дональд Трамп проводит предвыборный митинг в Уилмингтоне, Северная Каролина
- It seems to me that there is no "victory plan" as such. It's all the same talk: economic pressure, new sanctions, political pressure for the countries of the South to join in supporting Ukraine, and attempts to induce the Americans to authorize strikes against Russia. I don't think they will be allowed to do the latter," Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former Harvard University professor, told Izvestia.
Zelensky also has several meetings scheduled with European leaders. The most important for Kiev are the talks with Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz. After all, the German leader has upset the Ukrainian leadership several times recently. On September 11, he called for a peace summit with Russian participation. And before that, Scholz came forward with an initiative to stop hostilities as soon as possible and start the process of peaceful settlement. On September 13, he once again refused to supply Kiev with long-range Taurus missiles, a move that could increase escalation.
- Chancellor Scholz is very firm on this issue and his opinion has not changed. Scholz is refusing deliveries," said German government spokesman Steffen Hebeestreit.
Канцлер Германии Олаф Шольц и президент Украины Владимир Зеленский (полномочия истекли 20 мая 2024 года) во время встречи в аэропорту Франкфурта, Германия. 6 сентября 2024 года
Since the beginning of August, the Ukrainian leadership has consistently demanded permission for Western arms strikes deep into Russia, and in particular, it is Washington and London that are expected to give carte blanche. The rhetoric in this regard is constantly changing. After the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and British Foreign Minister David Lammy to Kiev on September 11, there was talk that one of the outcomes of this trip would be the announcement of an official authorization from the two countries. Toward the end of the same day, it was also reported that the issue would be discussed during Joe Biden's meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The Guardian emphasized that the UK has decided to lift the ban on such strikes altogether. Even earlier it was reported that Kiev handed Washington and London a list of targets for strikes deep into the Russian Federation for agreement.
However, news then emerged that the leaders of the United States and Britain would not authorize such attacks after all, with The Times claiming that Biden was unlikely to announce the decision to strike deep into Russian Federation after meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of the UNGA.
Vladimir Putin recently emphasized that lifting restrictions on strikes would effectively mean direct involvement of NATO member states in the conflict in Ukraine.
Госсекретарь США Энтони Блинкен и глава МИД Великобритании Дэвид Лэмми во время встречи с президентом Украины Владимиром Зеленским (полномочия истекли 20 мая 2024 года) в Киеве. 11 сентября 2024 года
"We will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be posed to us," the Russian president said.
According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, US statements about the possibility of lifting restrictions for Kiev to strike deep into Russia are an attempt to psychologically influence it. But one thing is clear: this is another step toward escalation.
- Such hesitation in the context of approving one or another of Kiev's requests and initiatives on weapons is already a familiar process. Even Biden once said that the delivery of Abrams tanks could mean the beginning of World War III. They keep crossing one red line after another. The hesitation started with the Javelin and ended today with the delivery of F-16 fighter jets and talk of authorizing strikes on Russian territory. So it seems to me that strikes will be approved, it's just a matter of time. The discussion of this issue in the public space is preparation of the information ground," Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский (полномочия истекли 20 мая 2024 года) наблюдает за пролетом переданных Украине истребителей F-16. 4 августа 2024 года
Some representatives of the collective West are pushing Washington in every possible way to make a decision in Kiev's favor.
"I propose to stop the discussion about red lines. It was a mistake to have a public discussion about red lines because it just gives the Russians too good a card in their hands. I think the restrictions on the use of weapons should be lifted," said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, for example.
Earlier, strikes on Russian territory were also supported by the Netherlands, while allowing the use of their F-16s in particular.
Zelensky's speech at the UN General Assembly
No less important part of Zelensky's visit is his planned speech at the UN General Assembly on September 25. The Ukrainian leader is expected to use the platform to broadcast his "peace formula," which is not yet popular with most countries, including those in the Global South.
Last year's unsuccessful conference in Switzerland only led to the realization that any peaceful settlement is impossible without the participation of the Russian Federation. Therefore, it was decided to hold the next "peace summit" with the participation of the Russian side. Even Kyiv is not opposed to this now.
But the Russian authorities have not given any guarantees of participation in such an event. On September 10, the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergey Shoigu, ruled out negotiations with Kyiv until the Ukrainian army leaves the Kursk region.
- At the UN General Assembly, they will do the same thing they did two years ago, namely recruit as many countries as possible to vote in favor of condemning Russian "aggression," as they call it. Zelensky is a showman, and he loves to perform in front of various politicians. Bilking money and making speeches at forums. The main task is to make another showy event, after which it can be said that the countries of the Global South support Ukraine. This is pure propaganda," says Vladimir Brovkin.
In Konstantin Blokhin's opinion, the General Assembly session really serves Kiev as a tool to gain maximum support from hesitant or neutral countries.
- The task is to create the most favorable negotiating position for Ukraine and to force Russia by force, not on equal terms, as Moscow wants, but by force, to sit down at the negotiating table on unacceptable terms - the return of Crimea and other territories. In order to do this, more Western military aid and more pressure on the Russian Federation are needed," the expert added.
At the same time, there are no prospects for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev now. The West did not accept Vladimir Putin's clear and direct condition made on June 16 at a meeting with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Тренировка военнослужащих ВСУ перед отправкой на передовую
"We call for turning the tragic page of history and gradually restoring relations with Ukraine and Europe. The main condition is the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian military from the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that it is from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders, which existed at the time of their entry into Ukraine," the Russian leader said at the time.
According to Brovkin, even if Zelensky would like to make some concessions, the nationalist elites in Ukraine will not allow him to do so.
- The Bandera forces in Ukraine are destroying themselves in the sense that they will not let him sign any agreement with concessions, because they want either everything or nothing. The more they insist that Ukraine should get everything, including Crimea, the less chance there is that any compromise will be found," the expert said.
Танки Т-72 и Т-90 в механосборочном цехе «Уралвагонзавода» в Нижнем Тагиле
At the same time, he believes that whatever decisions the Western leaders make, they have taken Vladimir Putin's warning seriously and do not want to lead to a direct clash with Moscow, particularly in view of its powerful industrial and nuclear potential.
Thus, for now, the conflict is likely to continue until one of the major Western countries begins to reduce its support for Ukraine. The key role here, obviously, is played by the US - Kiev's main donor. Many experts now agree that if the Republicans led by Donald Trump come to power, the situation may begin to change not in favor of the Ukrainian authorities. The former president has repeatedly emphasized that he intends to de-escalate the conflict and is ready to engage in a dialog with Russia.
Obviously, if the United States decides to take such a step, other European countries, at least some of them, will surely follow. Especially those states where the majority of the population sees no prospects for further confrontation with the Russian Federation. On the other hand, it is not a fact that Trump can defeat Harris. Moreover, he once promised to mend relations with Moscow, but as a result, after his arrival in the White House in 2018, Washington imposed a considerable number of sanctions against the Russian Federation.
