Arab might: Iraq ready to provide security after U.S. withdrawal
The Iraqi Armed Forces are ready to fill the security vacuum that may remain after the withdrawal of the US-led International Coalition troops from the country, Fadi al-Shamri, political adviser to the republic's Prime Minister, told Izvestia. Earlier, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani said that he had already discussed the issue of withdrawal of US troops from the country with President Joe Biden and reported "reaching an understanding on this issue." What difficulties the Iraqi army will face after the withdrawal of the international coalition and whether it will be able to contain the terrorist threat - in the material of "Izvestia".
Why US troops are present in Iraq
The Iraqi army can effectively cope with the security threats it will face after the withdrawal of the US-led international coalition troops from the country, Fadi al-Shamri, political adviser to the Iraqi Prime Minister, told Izvestia.
Earlier, the head of the Iraqi government Mohammed al-Sudani said that there is no reason for the presence of the US-led international coalition forces in Iraq, as the Islamic State (IS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia) does not pose a serious problem for the country.
- Iraq's armed forces have the ability to confront security challenges and regional fluctuations and can fill the vacuum that the international coalition will leave. The Iraqi army, counter-terrorism units, al-Hashd al-Shaabi (a pro-Iranian paramilitary group - Izvestia) and local security forces have accumulated vast experience on the ground during the years of fighting terrorism since 2003 and during the confrontation with ISIS," Fadi al-Shamri told Izvestia, adding that military formations play a fundamental role in ensuring political, military and economic stability.
Politico reported on September 20 that the United States plans to announce this week an agreement with Iraq to reduce the presence of U.S. troops in the country. According to the newspaper, coalition troops will leave Iraq by the end of 2026.
- The war against ISIS, which threatened the entire world, not just Iraq, proved that Iraqi forces are capable of pursuing and eradicating terrorism, as well as regaining control of all lands held by the terrorist organization," Fadi al-Shamri noted.
The topic of a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops remains a topic of debate. The Iraqi government has repeatedly stated the need to reduce the foreign military presence. In 2020, after the defeat of IS, the Iraqi parliament demanded the complete withdrawal of all foreign troops from the republic.
When the international coalition forces will be withdrawn from Iraq
Now the coalition, created to fight IS in Iraq and Syria, includes 87 countries, including the UK, France, Germany. At the moment there are about 2.5 thousand American servicemen in Iraq, deployed in the "green zone" in Baghdad, where government buildings and diplomatic missions are located, in the airport of the capital, as well as in the military airport Harir in the province of Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The withdrawal format involves a shift from active combat operations to an advisory and supportive role. This means reducing troop numbers, ending participation in ground operations, and emphasizing training for Iraqi security forces.
In 2021, it was announced that the U.S. combat mission in Iraq would end by the end of the year and troops would be relegated to "advisory" status without combat operations. Since then, there have been constant calls from the republic to withdraw foreign troops from its territory. At the same time, the Russian Embassy in Iraq earlier told Izvestia that Baghdad plans to further develop security cooperation with Washington, but on a bilateral basis, and the formats and parameters of such cooperation are being discussed.
The U.S. is in no hurry to completely withdraw its forces from Iraq for a number of reasons related to its geopolitical interests. Washington believes that the withdrawal of U.S. troops could strengthen Iran's influence in Iraq through pro-Iranian Shiite groups. Already, many political forces, especially Shiite factions and parties, have close ties to Iran and see the U.S. as an enemy. These groups are pressuring the government to withdraw U.S. forces. The states, fearing a change in the balance of power in the region, are trying to maintain the status quo.
The issue of complete evacuation of U.S. troops faces other political and strategic complexities. Washington is using the al-Harir base in Iraqi Kurdistan to provide logistical and other support to the U.S. military in Syria, which is keeping the Kurdish quasi-state in the northeastern parts of the country afloat. These areas are outside the control of the central government. A complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq would mean a blockade of U.S. bases in Syria and the Kurdish alliance, the Forces for a Democratic Syria.
In addition, the Iraqi military is still dependent on outside assistance for some things such as intelligence, air support, logistics, and training.
For many Iraqi politicians and citizens, the presence of foreign troops, especially U.S. military forces, is perceived as a violation of the country's sovereignty. After years of foreign intervention and the presence of coalition forces, Iraq, especially the Iranian-oriented segment of the country's politics, is seeking to regain full control over its territory and manage security issues on its own, without outside influence.
Various media outlets have previously claimed that the withdrawal of foreign coalition troops is scheduled to begin in September 2025, with the final completion of the mission scheduled for 2026.
Threat of IS revival
The official reason for the presence of the international coalition in Iraq is the fight against terrorist groups, primarily the "Islamic State". Although this extremist structure has lost a significant part of the territory under its control, it retains the ability to carry out terrorist attacks and guerrilla operations. Iraq believes that the country's security agencies need to continue to develop intelligence and military capabilities to successfully deter the terrorist threat, especially in hard-to-reach regions.
- Countering the remnants of ISIL requires a different type of preparedness, as the remnants of the terrorist organization rely heavily on guerrilla warfare tactics and hide in remote areas, making it a priority to improve intelligence and security services. Therefore, the government is constantly working to develop the intelligence system and enhance the ability to track suspicious movements in rural and desert areas," said Fadi al-Shamri, an adviser to the prime minister.
Despite the defeat of the self-proclaimed caliphate, IS is still actively engaged in propaganda and attracting new supporters, especially among young people.
- The Iraqi armed forces are fully prepared to confront the "Islamic State". And ISIS really no longer exists as a serious threat, the number of their members is very small. "Now the 'Islamic State' is dealing with those Iraqis who joined the terrorist organization for financial gain rather than for religious reasons," Iraqi military specialist Safaa al-Asam told Izvestia.
Although IS is no longer the powerful force it was in the mid-2010s, its survivability and ability to sabotage continue to pose a long-term threat to Iraq's stability.
Against the backdrop of regional escalation, the issue of the possible escape of IS families from the al-Hol camp, which is tens of kilometers from the nearest border with Iraqi Mosul, is becoming an acute concern for the republic. This poses a threat to Iraqi national security and regional stability, said Seif Raad, a retired Iraqi Armed Forces officer and military expert.
- The threat of ISIS lies in the intensification of their operations in early 2024 in Iraqi and Syrian lands, as well as the emergence of a radical current called "ISIS Khorasan" (an organization banned in Russia), which is able to carry out operations in Russia, Turkey and Iran and horizontally expand to reach the countries of East Asia. This indicates that this terrorist organization was able to reorganize itself in a different form and with separate units working on the same approach," the expert shared his opinion with Izvestia.
Why Iraq benefits from the US presence
The main argument of those political forces that seek the withdrawal of the coalition from the territory of the country is the significant development of the Iraqi armed forces and their ability to effectively respond to security challenges and threats.
- We are constantly working to equip and arm our forces with the latest technology and equipment, as well as training new personnel to maintain the security and stability achieved through the efforts and sacrifices of Iraqis," Fadi al-Shamri added.
Nevertheless, there is a view in the Iraqi expert community that there are still vulnerabilities in the country's armed forces.
- We have shortages and weaknesses in the field of weapons because the U.S. is not serious about equipping Iraq with everything it needs. There is a shortage of weapons in the fields of intelligence, security, air defense, air force and even in the field of artillery. If the U.S. were really serious about equipping Iraq with the weapons it needs, we would never need coalition forces," Safaa al-Asam said.
Without outside help, the Iraqi army may have trouble effectively managing operations and ensuring its own security.
- The withdrawal of the U.S.-led coalition will affect the security situation because of the lack of military, intelligence and technical capabilities with which we can protect Iraqi airspace. We don't have much capability to take aerial photographs of the entire country," Seif Raad said, noting that it could take several years to equip Iraq with all the necessary equipment.
Thus, the withdrawal of coalition troops could severely weaken the Iraqi army in critical areas such as intelligence, air support, logistics and coordination.
