Expert assessed the risks of a direct clash between Hezbollah and Israel
After an overnight attack on northern Israel, the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah said it had entered a new stage of confrontation with the Israeli state. In turn, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) promised to intensify strikes against targets in Lebanon. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, despite the growing degree of tension, there are a number of factors preventing the sides from moving to direct combat.
"Israel is likely to try to limit itself to air strikes on Hezbollah's military facilities and to buy possible threats from the movement with minimal costs. The likelihood of the current escalation escalating into a full-scale war should not be overestimated," Ivan Bocharov, program coordinator of the Russian International Affairs Council, is convinced.
According to him, it will be very problematic for the Israeli Defense Forces to conduct two simultaneous ground operations. "Hezbollah, despite the latest attacks, remains combat capable and can inflict significant damage on the Israeli army."
"We can also say that Hezbollah's ability to counter Israel has been reduced as a result of the events of the last few days. Because of the pager bombings and the elimination of a number of Hezbollah commanders during the strike on Beirut, coordination in the organization was significantly disrupted. The airstrikes on launchers and military facilities have reduced the potential of the movement's military wing," he noted.
Read more in Izvestia's exclusive piece:
Winged phase: Hezbollah announced a new phase of the fight against Israel
